HEDGE FUNDS: WHERE NEXT?

We expect 2009 to witness a major rationalization of hedge funds. After an estimated ~20% redemptions in 2H 2008, we expect another 15-30% in our base case in 2009 to ~$950bn, although with a wide spread to our bull and bear cases. Whilst we hope the large initial wave of European HFoF outflows is now behind us, we expect a catch-up of redemptions from US institutions in 1H 09 that have over-committed to private equity/real estate and need to raise cash. Liquidity, transparency, road-tested...

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